Sunday, August 2, 2009

10 Failed Predictions About The Future

1. "You better get secretarial work or get married." --Emmeline Snively, advising would-be model Marilyn Monroe in 1944



In 1944, Marilyn Monroe was discovered by a photographer who encouraged her to apply to The Blue Book modeling agency. She was told by Snively, director of the Modelling Agency that she should became a secretary, besides they were looking for models with lighter hair. So Marilyn dyed her brunette hair to a golden blonde. She finally signed a contract with the agency. And of course, became Blue Book's most successful model.




2. "If excessive smoking actually plays a role in the production of lung cancer, it seems to be a minor one." --W.C. Heuper, National Cancer Institute, 1954



In 1964 the United States Surgeon General's Report on Smoking and Health began suggesting the relationship between smoking and cancer, which confirmed its suggestions 20 years later in the 1980s. Nowadays, it%u2019s well known that long-term exposure to tobacco smoke is the most common causes of lung cancer.




3. "Ours has been the first [expedition], and doubtless to be the last, to visit this profitless locality." -- Lt. Joseph Ives, after visiting the Grand Canyon in 1861



More than a century later, five million people annually visit this "profitless locality," by car, foot, air, and on the Colorado River itself.


4. There will never be a bigger plane built --A Boeing engineer, after the first flight of the 247, a twin engine plane that holds ten people.



What would this engineer say if he saw the current largest passenger plane on earth, the Airbus A380? The Airbus A380 has 50% more floor space than arch rival Boeing's 747 Jumbo, with room for duty-free shops, restaurants and even a sauna, and can provide site for up to 853 people.


5. Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible --Lord Kelvin, 1895



This was said by Lord Kelvin (British mathematician and physicist, president of the British Royal Society) only eight years before brothers Orville and Wilbur Wright took their home-built flyer to the sandy dunes of Kitty Hawk, cranked up the engine, and took off into the history books.


6. Rail travel at high speed is not possible because passengers, unable to breathe, would die of asphyxia --Dr Dionysys Larder (1793-1859)



It may sound impossible to Dr Larder, professor of Natural Philosophy and Astronomy at the University College London back in the 1800, but in 1939 the first high speed train went from Milan to Florence at 165 km/h (102.5 mph). Thankfully no one died. Nowadays these trains go at 200 km/h (125 mph) and faster.


7. A rocket will never be able to leave the Earth's atmosphere --New York Times, 1936



10 years later, in 1946, the first American-built rocket to leave the earth's atmosphere was launched from White Sands, attaining 50 miles of altitude.


8. That virus [HIV] is a pussycat - --Dr. Peter Duesberg, molecular-biology professor at U.C. Berkeley, 1988



By 2006, the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS and the World Health Organization estimated that AIDS has killed more than 25 million people since it was first recognized on December 1, 1981.


9. "Drill for oil? You mean drill into the ground to try and find oil? You're crazy." --Associates of Edwin L. Drake refusing his suggestion to drill for oil in 1859.



Only one hundred fifty years passed by since the first attempt to dig out oil from the ground met such contempt, and now the whole world is trying to look for unimaginable places to satiate the thirst for money that is propelled and sustained on this black gold.


10. I think there is a world market for maybe five computers --Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943



It may sound ridiculous now, but the prediction was actually true for about ten years after it was made. Almost every forecaster would settle for a ten year limit on the testing of their forecasts. Of course, by the 1980s and the advent of the PC, such a statement looked plain daft.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

One of my favourites:

By the year 2000 we will undoubtedly have a sizable operation on the Moon, we will have achieved a manned Mars landing, and it's entirely possible we will have flown with men to the outer planets. (Werner von Braun, 1969)

Vincetastic said...

This is an excellent top ten list. Hindsight is always 20/20, but these were way off. I wish we had flying cars as well, but it looks like we might have to wait a long time for that. I still believe that if you can imagine it, then there is a possibility it can become a reality. You can cross-post this to our site http://www.toptentopten.com/ and link back to your site. We are trying to create a directory for top ten lists where people can find your site. The coolest feature is you can let other people vote on the rankings of your list.

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